## CST-317: Introduction to Earth System Modelling (INPE Course 2013)

## References

Modeling the Environment (2nd edition), Andrew Ford. Island Press, 2010.

Thinking in Systems, Donella Meadows, Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008.

Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems, Michael L. Deaton & James J. Winebrake. Springer, 2000.

Simulation for the Social Scientist, Nigel Gilbert & Klaus Troitzsch, Open University Press, 2005.

Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life, John H. Miller & Scott Page, Princeton University Press, 2007.

Cities and Complexity. Michael Batty. MIT Press, 2007.

## Software Description

The models described in this course will be developed using TerraME. TerraME is an extension of the Lua language. Some useful documents about TerraME:

Students should read the TerraME EMS paper first, to get a sense of the language. Then they should read the Lua papers, to learn about programming in Lua.

## Classes

Topic | Title | Models | TerraME Types | Exercise |

1 | Introduction | | | |

2 | Lua for TerraME | Lua scripts | nil, number, boolean, string, table. function | Lua exercises |

3 | Systems Theory | Water in the tub | Cell, Event, Timer, Observer | The City and the Dam |

4 | Feedbacks | Feedbacks | | |

5 | Epidemics | Epidemics | | Epidemics scenarios |

6 | Renewable Resources | Mono Lake Example | | Renewable Resources |

7 | Daisyworld | Daisyworld model | | Daisyworld |

8 | Ecological Models | Predator Prey Models | | Fitting Predator Prey Models |

9 | Cellular Automaton | Game of Life | CellularSpace, Neighborhood, Legend | Variations on the Game of Life |

9a | Fire in the Forest (CA example) | Fire in the forest | | Fire Scenarios |

10 | Hydrological Models | Database, TerraView, Source code | | Hydrological Modelling |

11 | Deforestation-part1 | | | |

11a | Deforestation-part2 | Deforestation data | | |

11b | Deforestation-part3 | Databases, Scripts | Trajectory | Deforestation Model + Scripts |

12 | Agent-based modelling | SegregationModel | Agent, Society | Segregation Models |

13 | Game Theory | Prisioner's Dilemma | | Variations on Prisioner's Dilemma |

14 | Evolution of Cooperation | Code Evolution of Cooperation | | Cooperation Models |

## Additional Reading

## Papers for Final Projects

The final project consists of an implementation and discussion of one of the following papers.

Christiane e Anahi | H. Balzter, P. W. Braun, W. Köhler (1998) Cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 107(2-3):113-125 |

| J. Silvertown, S. Holtier, J. Johnson and P. Dale (1992) Cellular Automaton Models of Interspecific Competition for Space-The Effect of Pattern on Process. Journal of Ecology, 80(3):527-533 |

Felipe | Chase, C. (1992) Fluvial landsculpting and the fractal dimension of topography. Geomorphology, 5(1-2):39-57. |

| S. G. Berjak, J. W. Hearne (2002) An improved cellular automaton model for simulating fire in a spatially heterogeneous Savanna system. Ecological Modelling 148(2):133–15 |

| D. L. Dunkerley (1997) Banded vegetation: development under uniform rainfall from a simple cellular automaton model. Plant Ecology 129(2):103-111 |

| D.L Dunkerley (1997) Banded vegetation: survival under drought and grazing pressure based on a simple cellular automaton model. Journal of Arid Environments 35(3):419–428 |

Jaidson e Rafael | G.Ch Sirakoulis, I. Karafyllidis, A. Thanailakis (2000) A cellular automaton model for the effects of population movement and vaccination on epidemic propagation. Ecological Modelling 133(3): 209–223 |

Ana Gabriela e Lucinéia | C. Beauchemina, J. Samuelb, J. Tuszynskia (2005) A simple cellular automaton model for influenza A viral infections. Journal of Theoretical Biology 232(2) 223–234 |

| Medeiros, L. C., Castilho, C. A. R., Braga, C., de Souza, W. V., Regis, L., Monteiro, A. M. V. (2011). Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. PLOS neglected tropical diseases, 5(1), e942. |

Carla e Ian | M.V. Avolio, S. Gregorio, F. Mantovani, A. Pasuto, R. Rongo, S. Silvano, W. Spataro (2000) Simulation of the 1992 Tessina landslide by a cellular automata model and future hazard scenarios. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 2(1):41–50 |

Sandro e Lira | H. Nakanishi (1990) Cellular-automaton model of earthquakes with deterministic dynamics. Phys. Rev. A 41:7086–7089 |

| R. Toivonen, J. Onnela, J. Saramaki, J. Hyvonen, K. Kaski (2006) A model for social networks. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 371(2):851–860 |

| Barros, J. Urban Growth in Latin American Cities. PhD thesis, CASA/UCL |

Lis e Ana Paula | Cycles in Predator and Prey Populations, Chapter 20 of A. Ford, Modeling the Environment |